Grantland's Zach Lowe writes about a five percent theory in which teams shouldn't time their rise to a championship according to the elite teams in the league.
In the NBA, there are the elite teams, the lottery teams, and everyone in between. Some observers insist that—sick of laboring in the go-between—the Golden State Warriors "conveniently lost a bunch of games" at the end of last season so as to land a spot in last June's draft lottery. In turn, they drafted Harrison Barnes and have climbed into this year's Western Conference playoff picture and, in David Lee, secured their first All-Star since Latrell Sprewell in 1997.
The elite teams include perennial title contenders like the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat.
The in-between is a little harder to distinguish as each of these five teams are perennial playoff players, but don't have the necessary means to make it to the big stage of the NBA Finals. Such glaring weaknesses can range from lack of shooting, injuries, defense—or just being in the wrong conference.
These teams are ranked in order from the ones that seem most likely to win a championship but won't be able to do so because of said weaknesses. This shouldn't necessarily mean that teams should immediately blow their team up in order to play the odds.
All of these teams have tasted playoff success in recent seasons and are currently experiencing regular season success, but their odds of becoming great don't stack up against other top-tier squads.
Unless Josh Smith plays like the superstar he can be, the Hawks won't advance past the second round.Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
The Atlanta Hawks are one of the quietest successful teams in recent NBA memory, making the playoffs in each of the last five years and on their way again this year.
However, they've yet to make it past the second round in any of those five seasons. Joe Johnson, the conductor of most of those playoff runs, is now in Brooklyn, and the Hawks have rebuilt the team around Al Horford, Josh Smith and a bevy of three-point shooters.
They've succeeded so far this season, going 25-18, good for sixth right now in the Eastern Conference, but they don't appear to have what it takes to get much further than the second round.
Granted, they could steal a series against the New York Knicks or Indiana Pacers because of their three-point shooting, but true greatness will be hard to achieve unless Josh Smith blossoms into a superstar.
The Hawks are at the bottom of this list because expectations for them aren't that great. Hawk fans, all five of them, probably aren't demanding much, and that is why they will play well all season. But management won't have much pressure to make this team a legitimate Finals contender.
The number one defensive team in the NBA belongs to the Indiana Pacers, allowing 95.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Hoopdata.
They have missed the playoffs only five times in the past 21 seasons. A 76 percent success rate isn't so bad. The problem? They didn't win a single championship in that span.
The biggest roadblock they have this season is their lack of offense. Roy Hibbert started the season horribly, unable to make shots or execute low-post moves. But in recent weeks, the Pacers have improved markedly, thanks to the always-solid play of David West and Paul George's breakout season.
Through all of that, they are ranked second to last in offensive efficiency, with 98.4 points per 100 possessions, according to Hoopdata.
Danny Granger is slated to come back in about a month or so, but his offensive numbers have dropped steadily in each of the last four seasons. Indiana appears to be Paul George's team on offense now.
Even with the aforementioned weaknesses, the Pacers still have a shot at making the Finals because they play in a weaker conference.
However, it should be noted that they did have a 2-1 lead against the Miami Heat last season before LeBron James went all Superman on them.
This season and the next should provide the same story as the Pacers won't be able to score consistently enough to make the Finals.
From Carmelo Anthony to Arron Afflalo to Andre Miller, the Denver Nuggets have always had a ton of talent but could never get close to the NBA Finals.
That hasn't worked as they've won 50-plus games four times in the past four seasons (discounting lockout season), but losing in the first round eight out of the past nine times they've been in the playoffs.
Last year, they weren't able to combat the length and power of the Los Angeles Lakers, and fell in a close seven-game series. Then in the offseason, they decided to trade for Andre Iguodala and assemble a team so quick and explosive, it'd simply overwhelm opponents.
They have now assembled a team chock full of very good players that management hopes will mesh together well enough to bring the franchise to the promised land.
Their season has gotten off to mixed results as they are eight games above .500, even though they've played the majority of their teams away from their high-altitude home gym. They do, however, own the second-fastest pace in the league.
Even though they've shot from long range much better in recent weeks, they are still the third-worst three-point shooting team in the NBA (33.2 percent). After Danilo Gallinari—and he isn't exactly a sharpshooter either, shooting 36.4 percent from distance—the Nuggets don't have a player who plays consistent minutes shooting over 34.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Without a dominant frontcourt—while Kenneth Faried, Kosta Koufos, and JaVale McGee are promising players, none are a force on offense—they'll have trouble against the Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.
A superbly talented player, Gay finds himself as the weak link of a budding Finals contender.Jared Wickerham/Getty Images
The three teams listed above are very good teams in most years, but these next two teams are lumped in with the elite ones, perhaps rightfully so.
However, it is hard to see the Grizzlies get over the hump with mediocre outside shooting and, ultimately, a badly constructed team. Perhaps "badly" is a strong word, as the combination of Marc Gasol and Tony Allen do help form a defense that is the very definition of grit and grind.
After their upset of the San Antonio Spurs a couple years ago, the Grizzlies seemed poised to take the next step against the Los Angeles Clippers. But Chris Paul happened.
This year, the health of Rudy Gay seemed to be the answer to their problems, but he hasn't played up to his potential, either.
Even though he is averaging 17.2 points per game, his 41 percent shooting combined with a 14.4 Player Efficiency Rating doesn't bode well for the Grizzlies on offense. Memphis seems to force the game plan to Gay rather than running a system that involves other scorers.
The recent trade of Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington and Josh Selby unloads another three-point shooter from the zero that they already had. While their defense may carry them for a series or two, their lack of offensive cohesion on the other end will do them in.
Toss in the big-money decisions that they have to make in the future and even Memphis' highly regarded Vice President of Basketball Operations, John Hollinger, won't be able to give Grizzly fans a championship in the near future.
The Bulls have been a pleasant surprise this season but greatness is predicated on the knee of Derrick Rose.Jared Wickerham/Getty Images
They won 62 games with an MVP Rose and advanced all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. That seemed to be the beginning of what promised to be a long, fruitful career as a Chicago Bull—and it can still be—but a simple jump and awkward landing ended Rose's season.
Rose seems to be on his way back, but there is no way of knowing how he will fare until he plays 20-25 games on the court to get back in game shape.
The good news is that the Bulls defense hasn't skipped a beat without Rose, giving up the third-least points in the NBA. The bad news is the offense so far this season.
They are 20th in offensive efficiency without Rose. Compare that to 12th ranking they achieved in Rose's MVP year. We don't need enormous amounts of advanced stats to know the Bulls will need Rose if they want to become a truly great team.
Unlike Ricky Rubio, who is also coming back from an ACL injury, Rose's game is predicated on slashing to the basket.
Credit Tom Thibodeau for his great work on defense with Rose, but the constant twisting of body parts that has driven Rose's game to the best of the NBA is cause for concern in his recovery. Let's be honest: how many Adrian Petersons are there in this world?
However, the combination of his injury and LeBron James staring at him from the other side of a playoff matchup doesn't bode well for the Bulls' bid for its first championship since 1998.
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